Going into the last ten States, the underlying & critical question in many Democrats’ mind will be: Who can win against McCain? Their decision on whom to choose will be based on win-ability.
In a hypothetical Match-Up Poll in late February conducted by Associated Press, Obama had 51% against McCain’s 41%, while Clinton was 48% vs McCain’s 43%. In the week before, the Pennsylvania primary, both Democrats’ win-ability had gone down: Obama was even with McCain at 45%, while Clinton’s lead over McCain dipped to 48% vs 45%.
The exchange of barbs between the 2 Democrat presidentiables is not …read more

Exit poll statistics (from cnn.com) on the past two presidential elections:

In the 2000 elections, 39% of voters were card-carrying Democrats, 35% were Republicans. Of the 39% Democrat voters, 86% voted Democrat (thus, 14% crossed the party line and voted Republican). Of the 35% Republican voters, 91% voted Republican (thus, 9% crossed the party line and voted Democrat).
The voters in the 2004 elections were evenly divided. Again, more Republicans voted the party line compared to the Democrats (93% vs 89%).
17% of the 2004 voters were in the age bracket 18 – 29. Of these …read more

Miki Saxon at Leadership Turn asks the question: does youth have follow-through (http://www.leadershipturn.com/can-youth-lead/), while Eric Eggertson at Common Sense PR lists seven tasks that a candidate has to accomplish to capture the youth vote (http://www.commonsensepr.com/2008/01/21/obamas-goal-getting-out-the-youth-vote/).
Chiming in, I remember one political analyst (I don’t remember who, when, or where) said that, in almost all US elections, the capture of voters is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans: a share of approximately 40% each. Although there are intensive / extensive discussions and airings of issues (in media and in all sorts of fora, promoted and participated in by both …read more